There are a few systems in the Atlantic basin, but the National Weather Service said there are no threats to Florida ... for at least five days.

Florida is exhaling after its scary scrape with Hurricane Dorian, but the tropical Atlantic has four other systems brewing, including one far-off area that forecasters said is worth watching.

A tropical wave just off the coast of Africa showed up in the National Hurricane Center’s weather outlook early Wednesday and has a 60 percent chance of development over five days.

The area of low pressure was about 100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday. NHC forecasters said a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward. It has only a 20 percent chance of development over 48 hours.

Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters said in his Cat 6 column that the wave had amassed a lackluster grouping of showers and thunderstorms as of Thursday.

“However, the atmosphere in front of it has favorable conditions for development, with low to moderate wind shear, plus a good deal of mid-level moisture,” he said. “Recent runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis – the GFS, European and UKMET – have all shown support for development with several runs depicting the wave developing into a long-track Cape Verdes-type hurricane.”

The other tropical systems, including Tropical Storm Gabrielle, an area of low pressure several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and an area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles “are no threat to land and not worthy of further discussion currently,” Masters said.

The next name on the 2019 tropical cyclone list is Humberto, followed by Imelda.

BOOKMARK | The Times-Union’s hurricane tracking map

While mid-August through mid-October is the busiest period for Atlantic hurricanes, Sept. 10 is the pinnacle -- a time when warm water and low wind shear conspire in earnest to turn tropical waves into menacing storms.

A two-week forecast released Sept. 3 by Colorado State University said it expects above-normal hurricane activity through the middle of the month. It too notes the wave that left the coast of Africa on Wednesday.

“Vertical wind shear is forecast to be much lower than average across the tropical Atlantic as we near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which should provide conditions very conducive for hurricane formation and intensification,” the forecast said.

RELATED | Expect a more active storm season with death of El Niño

Until harmless Tropical Storm Chantel fired up August 20 in the deep Central Atlantic, the 2019 hurricane season had the slowest start since 1999 with Subtropical Storm Andrea struggling to life in May and July’s Hurricane Barry growing in the Gulf of Mexico. Barry made landfall July 13 as a Category 1 hurricane near Intracoastal City, L.a., before quickly dwindling to a tropical storm.

But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared the storm-thwarting El Nino dead in early August – an event that triggered it to change its hurricane season forecast to a prediction to an above-average year.


In addition to Dorian, Tropical Storm Erin came and went between Aug. 26 and Aug. 29 with no threat to land, short-lived Tropical Storm Fernand made landfall along northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and Tropical Storm Gabrielle is forecast to track harmlessly into the middle Atlantic.

“This sounds like a lot of activity at once, but it’s pretty par for the course this time of year,” said Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist for weather.com, an IBM company.